The Governor’s Narrow Path
Here is the reality for Governor Kathy Hochul: she is winning, but she is sweating. With less than six weeks until Election Day, the polls show she leads Republican Bruce Blakeman, but the margins are tight enough to keep her up at night. She took office after Andrew Cuomo resigned and barely scraped by in 2022 against Lee Zeldin. Now, she faces a crowded field of influence that has nothing to do with her actual record.
The latest data from Siena and Quinnipiac shows her advantage, but the real story is how the endorsements are shaking up the race. Democrats are locked in, and Republicans are locked in, but the middle ground is where the fight is happening. According to amNewYork, Siena pollster Steven Greenberg stated that while Democrats and Republicans are firmly committed to Hochul and Blakeman respectively, the current battle focuses on independent voters.
The Mamdani and Trump Effect
Mayor Zohran Mamdani and President Donald Trump are the two giants casting long shadows over this governor’s race. Blakeman is trying to tie Hochul to Mamdani, while the governor’s team is trying to link Blakeman to Trump. The irony? Both leaders have a cordial public relationship despite their political differences. The numbers show this dynamic is messy. A Siena poll indicated that 50% of likely voters believe Mamdani’s endorsement would positively impact Hochul’s campaign, whereas 30% said it would harm it.
Conversely, Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman yielded almost the opposite outcome, as 51% stated it would negatively affect his campaign. The Quinnipiac poll showed an even wider gap in favorability. While 46% viewed Mamdani favorably and 36% unfavorably, Trump received favorable ratings from 30% and unfavorable ones from 63%. For independents, the split is even sharper. Regarding endorsements, 49% viewed Trump’s negatively compared to 29%, while Mamdani’s backing of Hochul was seen positively by 40% versus 33%.
A Former Democrat Switches Sides
While the big names fight, local politics are shifting. Former City Councilman Bob Holden, a Democrat, just threw his support behind Blakeman. He cited “public safety” as the reason, calling the current streets “mayhem.” Holden, who represents Middle Village and Maspeth, said he was clipped by an e-bike riding the wrong way in Manhattan. He made it clear he doesn’t identify with the modern Democratic Party anymore. “We need to do something in New York State and Kathy Hochul has to be out of office come January the 1st,” Holden said.
This move adds fuel to Blakeman’s fire. Both his campaign and the state Republican Party have distributed mailers to suburban voters urging them to “Say No to Socialism”. Say No to Hochul and Mamdani. They are accusing Hochul of implementing Mamdani’s socialist policies. Holden’s endorsement is a direct hit on that narrative, proving that even Democrats are fed up with the current direction of the party and the state.
The Final Stretch
The next six weeks will define New York’s future. The November 3 election is the deadline, and the outcome hangs in the balance. If Hochul can’t separate herself from Mamdani in the minds of suburban independents, she could lose her mandate. If Blakeman can’t convince voters that Trump’s shadow is too dark, he loses. City matters constitute state matters, just as state matters constitute city matters. We are watching a race where the endorsements might matter more than the policies.
This is opinion and commentary from the RapForMayor team.
