New York Republicans are trying to run the same immigration playbook that worked four years ago, but the ground has shifted under their feet. While GOP candidates like Bruce Blakeman hammer away at sanctuary policies, voters are now far more worried about the cost of living than border crossings. The issue that once flipped House seats red has faded in importance just as the border surge that fueled it has dried up.
A Pew Research Center analysis indicates migrant crossings at the southern border have dropped to their lowest point in 50 years. Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. Border Patrol encountered a peak of nearly 250,000 migrants in December 2023, but now agents are encountering just a few thousand migrants a month, representing a massive drop. This change has forced a difficult political calculation for the GOP. John McLaughlin, a conservative pollster supporting Blakeman, noted the irony of the situation. “In some regards, the Republicans are victims of their own success because they’ve been able to secure the borders and stop the open border policies of Biden and [Kamala] Harris,” he said, according to Gothamist.
The High Stakes of the Blakeman Strategy
The strategy is risky because the migrant crisis that once defined New York politics has largely subsided. In January 2024, during the peak of the influx, as many as 4,000 immigrants a week arrived in New York City to apply for shelter. Former Mayor Eric Adams had warned that the migrant “issue” would “destroy New York City,” a comment that sparked intense backlash from immigrant advocates. Now, with numbers plummeting, Blakeman’s campaign is trying to keep the fear alive by linking Governor Kathy Hochul to open borders.
Meanwhile, Hochul’s team is countering by attacking Blakeman’s loyalty to Donald Trump. Three new ads airing Tuesday accuse the Nassau County executive of backing Medicaid cuts and aggressive immigration enforcement. One spot features a clip of Blakeman declaring, according to amNewYork, “I stand shoulder to shoulder with President Trump.” The campaign warns voters that he will “always put Trump ahead of you,” framing the election as a choice between state interests and a national figure who is deeply unpopular in many parts of the state.
Why the Old Script Doesn’t Work
The problem for the GOP is that the narrative has flipped. Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute at NYU School of Law, observed the sudden political pivot. “An issue that (Democrats) would run away from suddenly became worth embracing,” he said, referring to how Democrats are now highlighting their immigration enforcement records to counter Republican attacks.
Blakeman continues to push the hardline angle despite new data. At a recent press conference, he asked, “When are we gonna start talking about the drug dealing of illegal migrants, the shoplifting, the carjacking?” U.S.-born individuals are more likely to commit crimes than immigrants, including those without legal authorization, according to several studies. The disconnect between the candidate’s rhetoric and the current reality of the border is becoming a liability.
Hochul’s campaign ads are aggressively targeting the economy by claiming that Blakeman backs legislation which would increase insurance premiums by 40%. After credits expired, the Hochul administration reports that approximately 140,000 New Yorkers on federal health insurance subsidies faced an average premium rise of 38% this year. Blakeman denied proposing such a cut during a debate, even though he previously stated he would do so on Fox Business. This flip-flopping on health care, combined with his embrace of Trump’s immigration agenda, creates a messy picture for swing voters.
Early voting in New York City is already outpacing the 2022 gubernatorial contest, meaning the final week of campaigning is critical. The Hochul campaign is spending millions to ensure voters see the connection between Blakeman and Trump’s policies. If the border remains quiet and the economy stays the top concern, Blakeman’s hardline approach could backfire. The election is less about who can talk the loudest about ICE and more about who can protect the pocketbook of the average New Yorker.
The next concrete event is Election Day, where these contrasting strategies will be tested.
This is opinion and commentary from the RapForMayor team.
