New York City saw nearly 60% more people cast early ballots this year compared to the last governor’s race, but the energy driving those numbers has shifted. Over 690,000 New Yorkers checked in at sites during the nine-day period ending Sunday, according to unofficial figures from the city Board of Elections. The 432,634 early voters in the 2022 race between Hochul and Lee Zeldin saw an increase of nearly 258,000 people, representing a 59.6% rise.
While the raw numbers look impressive for democracy, the breakdown tells a story about who is actually showing up. Republicans constituted only 10.6%, whereas Registered Democrats represented 75.8% of early voters. The biggest jump came in Queens, where early voting surged 83.4%, but the real story is who drove the turnout.
The Mamdani Effect Has Faded
The buzz that fueled a record turnout last year for Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral run did not carry over into 2026. Because 15,000 fewer young people between 18 and 24 showed up, Early voting in the city fell roughly 13% versus last year’s surge. Analysts say the drop proves that the “Mamdani bump” was about one person, not a movement.
Neighborhoods in Brooklyn known as the Commie Corridor saw the largest declines in voter turnout. Assembly District 53, encompassing East Williamsburg and Bushwick, saw early voter turnout fall by 34%. Fordham political scientist Christina Greer noted that the current field lacks that specific draw. “No one is Mamdani,” Greer said. “He has a certain level of populism, like a Donald Trump, that people come out for the individual.”
Older Voters and Black Communities Lead the Way
With the young vote cooling off, the electorate is getting older and more established. Staten Island recorded the highest share among all boroughs, with 43% of early voters being at least 65.
At the same time, Black majority districts largely accounted for the largest gains in voter turnout compared to last year. Analysts say this highlights a crucial demographic reality. “Black voters tend to be a stronghold for the Democratic Party and will continue to be that even with the rise of the DSA,” Brooklyn-based Democratic strategist Lupe Todd-Medina said.
Hochul’s Campaign Focuses on Local Stakes
She even joined the mayor and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at a Bills watch party in Astoria on Sunday to reach out to Queens voters. Hochul, a vocal Bills supporter, stayed for the first half of the game while speaking to voters.
Despite national distractions, including Rep. Haley Stevens’ controversial endorsement of a Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, Hochul has kept her eyes on the state. Sen. Chuck Schumer described Stevens’ move as a “despicable betrayal,” but Hochul said she was solely focused on her work “right here in New York state.” She told amNewYork in an interview last week, “I’m not taking anything for granted.”
With early voting closed and Election Day arriving Tuesday, the question is whether the older, Black-majority districts can hold the line against a Republican challenger.
This is opinion and commentary from the RapForMayor team.
